The hopes and fears around artificial intelligence
“Artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.” That is how no less a figure than physicist Stephen Hawking has described the risks posed by intelligent machines capable of thought and action.
By Dan O’Brien
He is not alone. Some, if by no means all, of the world’s deepest thinkers in relevant fields are profoundly worried about the possible negative consequences of rapid and accelerating advances in artificial intelligence (AI).
AI advances are, as always with new technologies, being driven by those who see more opportunities than threats in change. As the opportunities are almost limitless, companies are now pouring massive sums into AI in the hope of making the next breakthrough. And of reaping the returns.
Machines already do much of the work once done by people’s muscle power. The next step is to complete more tasks requiring brain power. There is a distinction between ‘narrow AI’, which can perform specific tasks, and stronger forms of AI, which would perform a full range of human cognitive abilities. But better, stronger forms of AI are drawing closer, even if estimates on when they will be widely available vary a great deal. How advances in AI and other technologies will affect different aspects of our lives divides opinion.
At one extreme are the utopians who envision a world in which our lives improve immeasurably. At the other are dystopians who see multiple negative consequences, including machines replacing humans in an increasing number of jobs and AI being used against humanity, either by other humans or by machines themselves.
As AI advances in the coming years, a number of important economic, ethical and practical concerns will inevitably come to the fore. For instance, should machines be programmed to mimic humans or be distinct? Who will control AI once it is developed - the developers exclusively, or will new forms of regulation have to be created? And could AI create unprecedented levels of inequality as the gains go to the small group who own the technology while the losses are counted in mass unemployment?
Some economists are also worried future economies will consist of low-skilled jobs that are not profitable to automate and high-skilled jobs that complement new technologies. The losers will be a widening swathe of middle-skilled workers.
Because the trajectory of future technology is unpredictable, the exact impact on jobs is rather unclear. A much cited study by researchers at Oxford University found that 47pc of jobs in the US could become automated in the next 20 years. Yet, a recent OECD* paper found that 9pc of jobs are at high risk of being automated.
If opinions differ greatly on how negative the effects might be, there is more consensus on the sectors most likely to be disrupted by smarter machines. Those working in office support, retail and transport are seen as being affected most. Those in creative jobs, by contrast, are least likely (in the medium-term at any rate) to be replaced by a machine.
What most experts do agree on is the need for governments to act in order to smooth out the disruption technology is expected to bring. After all, industrialisation eventually forced states to introduce labour regulations and measures that became the welfare state. It seems most likely that education systems will offer the best hope to ensure as many people as possible have access to new opportunities and as few as possible are, to use a voguish phrase, left behind. Among other things, lifelong learning and re-skilling are likely to be a feature of working lives from now on. Innovation in education can help this process.
The prospect of people constantly updating their skills and working on a number of jobs in their lifetimes seems possible, particularly for those with high-level and technical skills. More focus will be required from those with low and middle-level skills.
AI technology brings with it challenges and opportunities. It will doubtless bring great change to the economy and society. The important lesson is that, when faced with change, the best course of action is usually to adapt proactively.
(Adapted from www.independence.ie. August, 14th, 2016)
*Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
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